2021 NHL Draft: January Draft Rankings

2021 NHL Draft

Draft Rankings: January Edition (1-179)

Steve Kournianos | 1/21/2021  |  

NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — Exploring the unknown is probably the best way to explain the evaluation process for the NHL’s 2021 draft class. It’s a big mystery in many ways; one that stretches beyond the typical debates that usually center on quality or depth or the popular “Who’s No. 1?”.

Instead, we’re dealing with a state of complete confusion, which is par for the course in today’s sports world. For starters, it wasn’t until a month ago when the league was able to announce a hard date for the draft itself, which is now scheduled (tentatively) for July 22-23. But even that little nugget is filled with ambiguity. Will it be in a venue? Are fans invited? Is the Zoom thing the new standard? Craziness indeed.

But it doesn’t stop there. The NHL draft historically draws about a quarter of its prospects from a given draft year from two Canadian major junior leagues – the OHL and WHL. Problem is, neither circuit has played an official game since early March of 2020, and most of their top prospects have already bolted to the U.S. or Europe to play competitively. That means the notable inactive players (and there are a bunch of them) can only be evaluated with video footage from last season.

Therefore, it is because of these constraints and limitations that the term “rankings” should be used quite loosely. Rather than view the list down below as either definitive or all-encompassing, consider it more like the rough draft of a book’s introduction, with months upon months remaining for the research and fine tuning needed to complete chapter by chapter.

And although late-July is a long way off with plenty of work to be done, these rankings were far from rubber stamped. Every player listed below was viewed at least twice, with only a small percentage exclusively via games from last season. As in previous editions, factors involved in making this list include a prospect’s production; his role and scope of on-ice responsibility, compete level both on and off the puck, body language, decision making under pressure, and most importantly, late and close dependability.

As for the first pick, there likely will be no consensus No. 1 for the first time in several years. Finnish forward Aatu Raty came the closest to staking that claim by being the favorite throughout most of last season. But a slow start in Finland’s SM-Liiga coupled with his omission from the under-20 world junior hockey championship roster dinged Raty’s draft stock and subsequently opened the door for multiple challengers.

Another consideration that hurts this draft’s reputation is that it is thin on elite forwards yet loaded with defensemen. The last time that happened was in 2012 – a defense-heavy draft whose second-leading scorer among forwards is Alex Galchenyuk, who hasn’t hit the 20-goal mark in five years. Compounding issues even further was the lack of a breakout performance by a notable draft prospect at the aforementioned world juniors.

Not only was this year’s tournament thinner on draft-eligible firepower than previous editions, but none of the handful of skaters being scouted produced a single dominant performance. Although Team USA forward Matt Beniers was critical in helping the Americans win gold, his yeoman-like performance was far from historic or eye-popping. Of course, basing NHL potential on a short tournament can be a slippery slope. But the reality is that the average NHL scout and his scouting director both could have skipped the 2021 world juniors and still maintained a completely coherent and sensible draft board.

Nonetheless, the show must go on, so below you’ll find our first extensive list for the 2021 draft class, with detailed reports on the top-10.

Lastly, if betting is your thing, most sportsbooks offer odds for the 2021 NHL Draft. In the U.S., you can place a bet from any state where sports betting is legal.  In Canada, however, things are a bit different, as betting is limited to parlays while single-event betting is yet to be legalized. Still, betting at offshore sportsbooks is not illegal in Canada. Canadians who want to bet on the 2021 NHL draft and other hockey events can do so through the Canadian sports betting sites mentioned here. Creating an account is usually free and simple.

1. Owen Power, LHD (Univ. of Michigan)
Nov. 22, 2002 | 6’6, 214 | Shoots Left | 14gp-2g-6a-8pts

There is no doubt in my mind that Power is not only the best defender available in the draft but also a strong candidate to go first overall. Big, upright, and cool as a cucumber under pressure, Power is a decisive on-ice commander who oversees the majority of breakouts during a given shift. What separates him from the pack is his ability to tap into the strengths of each forward in Michigan’s high-powered attack, which is exactly what he did last year in the USHL for Chicago’s deep group. Power is incredibly selfless and plays a team-first game. Although he has the hands, feet, and processor to pull off more than just a fancy play or two from an individual standpoint, Power’s vision and creativity poses a serious matchup problem for opponents. He plays with his head up and delivers precision passes no matter how much pressure he’s under.

All that said, the ambiguity surrounding this year’s draft class and lack of star power at the forward position is what helps makes Power an easier sell for a team picking first overall, and it can be argued that a player with his upside and skill set still would not have been picked first in any of the previous six drafts. There’s also the possibility that Power goes No. 1 based on organizational need, which can be a risky strategy for the downtrodden team selecting the top pick, especially is they are coming off consecutive disappointing seasons.

Owen Power with a rocket from Blankenburg and Beniers and it’s 2-0 Michigan! pic.twitter.com/HfNydSzoez

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 17, 2021

2. Matt Beniers, C (Univ. of Michigan)
Nov. 5, 2002 | 6’2, 174 | Shoots Left | 14gp-4g-9a-13pts

Explain it any way you want, but this power center has to be credited for successfully navigating an entire draft-1 season as an impact player for the under-18 NTDP, then moving on to Michigan where he is one of the nation’s top two-way forwards. Ranked No. 5 in my August list, Beniers’ play at Michigan was mirrored at the under-20 world junior hockey championship, where he centered (and at times, drove) the second line and played a pivotal role in the Americans winning the gold medal. Beniers is a possession fiend who has all the offensive tools you would want in a premier prospect, but he plays the game at a fast pace and provides his coach with the useful mix of physicality and tenacity off the puck. If you haven’t had the chance to see him play, you’re certainly missing out, as Beniers sets the standard for both high motor and effort from start to finish. Keep in mind that he played his way into an expanded role at both Michigan and at the world juniors despite being the youngest forward on either roster. Beniers is deserving of being a top-line center alongside competent finishers and he should make it next to impossible for any coach at any level to deny him that opportunity.

Matt Beniers…#2021NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/ga8wAbZa1T

— Steve Kournianos (@TheDraftAnalyst) December 29, 2020

3. Carson Lambos, LHD (JyP U20, SM-Sarja)
Jan. 14, 2003 | 6’0, 200 | Shoots Left | 11gp-2g-7a-9pts

A powerful two-way defenseman who took his talents to Finland after his WHL season with the Winnipeg Ice was delayed, Lambos is a minute-eating workhorse who can excel in any situation. He’s blessed with impressive multi-directional mobility and uses powerful leg drive and quick thinking to neutralize an opponent’s time and space. His decision to play his draft year in Europe is just one example of his dedication to the game, and many people familiar with his make-up say they aren’t the least bit surprised. Although Owen Power has a slight advantage over Lambos from a draft-resume standpoint, the Winnipeg native may turn out to be the best player in this entire draft class, let alone among defensemen.

With JyP U20, Lambos has been ensconced in the top four and has alternated between the first two pairings while seeing significant time on special teams. For added context to his contributions, Jyp U20 were 6-9-1 with a -26 goal differential before his arrival and went 6-3-2 with a +12 differential with Lambos in the lineup. Now that the SM-Sarja in broken up into Series play, Lambos leads JyP defensemen with 4 points in 4 games, ahead of older notable prospects Joni Jurmo and Ville Ottavainen. Last season, Lambos led all WHL rookie defensemen in scoring with 32 points (8 goals, 24 assists) in 57 games and last August would likely have been Canada’s No.1 defenseman at the under-18 Ivan Hlinka tournament had it not been cancelled.

4. Aatu Raty, C/W (Karpat, SM-Liiga)
Nov. 14, 2002 | 6’1, 177 | Shoots Left | 9gp-3g-0a-3pts

The younger brother of Arizona sniper prospect Aku Raty, Aatu is bigger, faster, and plays at a higher pace at the center-ice position while also displaying a noticeable level of determination and physicality. He has game-breaking potential, ideal size, and quickness for his frame, thus earning him the privilege of consideration for first overall. With only a few games under his belt to start the 2020-21 campaign, Raty has yet to take off in the manner we’ve seen previous top-pick candidates accomplish in the early going. Still, he was centering the top line of Karpat’s loaded under-20 squad in between stints with the A-Team and showing a well-rounded game in all three zones – both on and off the puck.

Raty was left off Finland’s U20 world junior squad (after making it the year prior) and alarm bells began to ring regarding his standing as a potential No. 1 pick. In hindsight, the decision made by head coach Antti Pennanen looks like a mistake since the Finns received next to nothing in production from their bottom-six wingers and were essentially a one-line team. Pennanen’s reasoning centered on wanting more of a “team” rather than skill at every position, but the fact that he chose one-dimensional sniper Roby Jarventie over a three-zone forward like Raty (who produced in last year’s tournament) makes his omission less justifiable. The good news is that Raty has played up to expectations since returning to Karpat and should stay in the mix for No. 1 consideration.

#SMLiiga: C Aatu Raty scores his first SM-Liiga goal since Aug. 20 in Karpat’s 4-1 loss to KalPa.#2021NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/crD7opmKNw

— Steve Kournianos (@TheDraftAnalyst) January 19, 2021

5. Sasha Pastujov, RW (U.S. U18, NTDP)
July 15, 2003 | 6’0, 175 | Shoots Left | 18gp-16g-14a-30pts | NCAA: Notre Dame

A hard-nosed dual threat who spearheads the NTDP U18’s attack that is missing injured center Chaz Lucius, Pastujov is the team’s leading scorer and a Notre Dame recruit. He’s been a top liner in both of his seasons with the program, and Pastujov’s 1.67 points-per-game average is on track to be the fourth-high highest among NTDP 18’s since 2015. The three ahead of him — Alex Turcotte (1.68), Clayton Keller (1.73), and Jack Hughes (2.24) — all were selected in the top 10 of their respective draft year. Of course, Pastujov because of COVID has not run the international gauntlet as an NTDP’er normally would, but he was excellent at the World U17 Hockey Challenge in November of 2019 (8 points in 6 games) in helping Team USA earn a silver medal.

Pastujov is incredibly clever with the puck and can play either the power or finesse game. He is a quick skater with a clean stride but his biggest assets are his hands and hockey sense. He simply knows how to get open, exploit opposing weaknesses, and create an open shooting or passing lane. It probably isn’t fair to compare any forward from this draft class to WJC MVP Trevor Zegras, but there are noticeable stylistic similarities between the two.

6. Kent Johnson, LW (Univ. of Michigan, Big-10)
Oct. 18, 2002 | 6’0, 166 | Shoots Left | 16gp-6g-12a-18pts

A flashy offensive winger with a high IQ and an assortment of ways to posterize the most competent of defenders, Johnson is one of the NCAA’s top-scoring freshmen — a rarity for first-year draft eligibles. He destroyed the British Columbia Hockey League in 2019-20 by leading the league in scoring by a good 30 points over his closest competitor, so Johnson’s gaudy collegiate numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. With Michigan, Johnson started out in a bottom-six role alongside fellow top draft prospect Matt Beniers, but Johnson quickly established himself as a low-maintenance threat who was able to create and finish chances on his own, especially when a chunk of the Wolverines’ top players were away at the world junior championship.

Although he isn’t listed as a big winger, Johnson is noticeably strong on the puck and can maintain control under intense physical pressure. He’s elusive as they come and shows escapability in any direction. Stickhandling and shooting are at the forefront of Johnson’s game, as he owns a plus-plus shot and will even use the slapper without hesitation. While most top-tier teenage forwards can generate offense on their own, it’s Johnson’s desire to play physical and forecheck with pressure that helps separate him from the pack. His skating strengths are more balance-and-agility related but Johnson can change gears at top speed and push play towards the middle of the ice with a great deal of success.

WHAT A GOAL!
🚨 Kent Johnson @umichhockey
3-1 @GopherHockey pic.twitter.com/4misCJo8KP

— Here’s Your Replay ⬇️ (@HeresYourReplay) December 9, 2020

7. Dylan Guenther, RW (Edmonton, WHL)
April 10, 2003 | 6’0, 166 | Shoots Left | 58gp-26g-33a-59pts (2019-20 stats)

The top forward prospect from the WHL who tried to keep the rust off by playing breifly for the AJHL’s Sherwood Park Crusaders, Guenther is a tough playmaker whose stock may have been unfairly hurt by the postponement of his season. Guenther’s play with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings was nothing short of impressive, as he was second in rookie scoring with 59 points (26 goals, 33 assists) in 58 games. He only appeared in a handful of games this season, so it would be folly to punish such a skilled player who last season looked every bit like a potential top-five draft pick.

Guenther may look wiry and slight, but he plays an aggressive in-your-face game with a dash of bite. He always seems to be in attack mode whether on or off the puck, to include the forecheck and penalty kill. Guenther’s style of play seems to bug the heck out of opponents, who also have to worry about his elite puck skills. He started out a little slow before exploding for 53 points in his final 45 matches. Guenther’s escapability, vision, and patience under pressure help make him a power-play specialist, and he can run the possession from the point or the half wall.

8. Brandt Clarke, RHD (Nové Zámky, Tipos Extraliga)
Feb. 9, 2003 | 6’1, 180 | Shoots Right | 10gp-1g-1a-2pts

How a prospect performs outside of his comfort zone is something that shouldn’t be overlooked during the draft evaluation process, especially if the kid is considered top-10 pick. Clarke’s safe space a season ago was with an upstart Barrie squad that was expected to make some noise in the playoffs with veteran Tyler Tucker leading the defense corps. It was after Tucker was traded to Flint, however, when Clarke’s two-way play really took off, and by season’s end he was the Colts’ No. 1 in every conceivable situation.

Unfortunately for Clarke and his teammates, the cancellation of postseason hockey was followed by a delayed start to the 2020-21 campaign, which also happened to be his draft season. Rather than stay at home and remain active via his own schedule, Clarke (and older brother Graham) packed their bags for Slovakia, where they currently play for Nove Zamky in the adult-age Tipos Extraliga. The transition has been far from seamless — new language, new rink, new coaches, new systems, new teammates, new everything — but to Clarke’s credit he’s shown enough flashes with the puck and poise under physical pressure to validate his decision to play overseas. There is little doubt he will be a better player because of this experience.

9. Cole Sillinger, LW (Sioux Falls, USHL)
May 16, 2003 | 6’0, 194 | Shoots Left | 5gp-4g-2a-6pts

A menacing power winger who can beat you in a variety of ways, Sillinger recently joined the USHL’s Sioux City Stampede and has made an immediate impact. Coming from a physical league like the WHL has helped make his on-ice transition appear seamless. He’s tough on or off the puck, but his soft hands, smarts, and puck protection help him dominate the possession game in the offensive end. Last season, Sillinger was able to distinguish himself on a deep Medicine Hat squad by being a power-play specialist (26 power-play points), killing penalties, and delivering 181 shots in only 48 games. Sillinger has deceptive speed and he can change gears for a straight-line route to the net. It is in these situations where Sillinger’s strength on the puck can be impressive, especially with a bigger defender draped over his back.

10. Jesper Wallstedt, G (Lulea, SHL)
Nov. 14, 2003 | 6’3, 214 | Catches Left | 26gp, 9-3-4, 2 SO, 1.78 GAA, .927 Save Pct.

Remember that trend from only a few years back where NHL GM’s and their scouting directors were in obvious agreement that no goalie should be taken in the first round unless the situation in net was beyond critical? Well, it was fun while it lasted, because this Swedish phenom is all but certain to make it three straight drafts where a backstop is taken in Round 1. Impressive international performances and a stellar SHL campaign for Lulea in his current draft year are just two reasons to earmark Wallstedt as not only a legitimate franchise-caliber goalie, but one who isn’t that far off from an everyday NHL job. Although many consider him to be the most heralded Swedish goalie prospect since Henrik Lundqvist, Wallstedt is a bit different stylistically in that he is more aggressive in the crease and will challenge shooters above the blue paint with regularity. But the technical jargon is just filler — Wallstedt consistently keeps his team in games and doesn’t require optimal conditions in front of his net to stop high-danger attempts.