2019 NHL Draft

Draft Lottery Preview

Steve Kournianos  |  04/8/2019 |  Nashville  |  [hupso]

When: Tuesday, April 9th, 2019
Where: Sportsnet Studios, Toronto, ON
Time: 8:00 p.m. EDT
Networks: Sportsnet, TVAS (Canada), NBC Sports Network (U.S.)
Teams (in order of standings): Colorado (OTT), Los Angeles, New Jersey, Detroit, Buffalo, NY Rangers, Edmonton, Anaheim, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Chicago, Florida, Arizona, Montreal.


NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — The NHL’s 2019 draft lottery, which will be broadcast around the world on Tuesday, April 9th, is both simple and complicated at the same time. The 15 teams that fail to make the playoffs (or the team they traded their pick to) are assigned numeric odds based on how poorly they placed in the standings. The team with the worst record — or in this year’s case, a team like the Colorado Avalanche who bilked the league-worst Ottawa Senators out of unprotected lottery pick in the Matt Duchene deal  — has the best chance of winning the lottery, while the non-playoff team with the most points (AKA The Best Loser) has the lowest.

Back in the day, draft positioning was awarded NFL style — finish last, get the first pick. Finish second to last, get the second pick, and so on. Pretty straightforward, no? Plus it removed any doubt from the draft order, which every year is locked in on the last day of the regular season. The NHL and NBA, however, do things a tad differently, probably since both leagues under similar NFL-style systems had examples of teams doing everything in their power to lose and get the highest pick. It’s called “tanking”, and the NHL has gone to great lengths to keep garbage teams on the competitive up-and-up as their miserable seasons come to a close.

The draft lottery is a big deal, and the NHL treats it as such. Officials act pretty “Secret Squirrel” about this process in terms of avoiding any leaks or outside actors who could manipulate the process in their favor. The drawing itself is done in a secure area inside Sportsnet’s studios in Toronto. I mean, it’s not Fort Knox-secured, but for non-military operations, it’s an impregnable area nonetheless. To me, the room looks like a storage area in the building’s basement that they doll up and cater for presentation purposes. You figure all this league revenue would be enough to maybe spring for a fancier locale, but I digress. League commissioner Gary Bettman orchestrates the event for the dozen or so team representatives, a randomly-selected media member (yeah, right) and a camera crew records the event to hopefully dispell any accusation of wink-wink funny business. Off to the side are a handful of NHL lackeys in suit jackets who usually look way too uncomfortable to be involved in a such a high-stakes event. For whatever reason, the lackeys all look under 30 years old.

The league uses a mechanical air-blowing lotto machine that jumbles 15 numbered ping pong balls (1-15). These balls don’t have team logos on them. Just numbers between 1 and 15, and each ball dances and bounces inside the plastic air chamber, awaiting for a league “official” (I use that term loosely) to release each ball into the chamber to reveal the number. Do this four times, and you have yourself a drawing. Do three drawings, and there’s your NHL Draft lottery. The first drawing determines the owners of the first overall pick, the second and third identify the teams picking 2nd and 3rd overall.

The league “official” draws each ball via a remote-controlled device that looks like the control unit on Darth Vader’s chest — three colored buttons, one which releases the numbered ping pong ball into the chamber. Each “drawing” is four presses of a button, with each press revealing a number. The order of the numbers after four presses — say, 2, 13, 4, 11 — is then scrubbed alongside a pre-determined list of team-assigned codes (see picture). The team that finished worse in the standings gets more code combinations, hence the draft lottery “odds”. For example, when the league says Colorado has an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery, is just an easier way of saying the Av’s have 18.5% of the 1000 or so number combinations.

Now, the system seems ok, but the remote operator manically gazing at the bouncing balls as he releases them seems way too sketchy for my blood. I mean, how do we know this dude isn’t some eagle-eyed ex-CIA numbers prodigy with 20/10 vision who graduated Princeton and owns the Army record for longest sniper kill? Hopefully Commissioner Bettman tells the young lad to face away from the ping pong machine as he presses the button.

The 12 teams not selected in the 2019 Draft Lottery? That’s the easy part. Picks four through 15 will be based on NHL regular season standings. For example, if the team with the seventh slot (Edmonton) wins the drawing for 2nd overall and the 10th team (Philadelphia) win the third pick, then the two teams that finished second and third-worst in the standings will drop to picking 4th and 5th overall, respectively. This is what happened last year when Carolina (11th slot) and Montreal (4th slot) each won the lottery drawings to dump the second and third-worst teams standings-wise — Ottawa and Arizona — out of the top three entirely.


2019 1 COLORADO (OTT) 18.50% 49.40%
2019 2 LOS ANGELES 13.50% 38.80%
2019 3 NEW JERSEY 11.50% 33.90%
2019 4 DETROIT 9.50% 28.80%
2019 5 BUFFALO 8.50% 26.10%
2019 6 NY RANGERS 7.50% 23.30%
2019 7 EDMONTON 6.50% 20.40%
2019 8 ANAHEIM 6.00% 19.00%
2019 9 VANCOUVER 5.00% 16.00%
2019 10 PHILADELPHIA 3.50% 11.40%
2019 11 MINNESOTA 3.00% 9.90%
2019 12 CHICAGO 2.50% 8.20%
2019 13 FLORIDA 2.00% 6.60%
2019 14 ARIZONA 1.50% 5.00%
2019 15 MONTREAL 1.00% 3.30%


1-N 1 1 Jack Hughes C U.S. U18 NTDP
1-E 3 2 Kaapo Kakko RW TPS SM-Liiga
2-E 2 3 Vasily Podkolzin RW SKA-Neva VHL
7-N 4 4 Trevor Zegras C U.S. U18 NTDP
5-N 6 5 Alex Turcotte C U.S. U18 NTDP
6-N 7 6 Matthew Boldy LW U.S. U18 NTDP
4-N 5 7 Bowen Byram LHD Vancouver WHL
3-N 8 8 Dylan Cozens C/W Lethbridge WHL
8-N 10 9 Peyton Krebs C Kootenay WHL
2-N 11 10 Kirby Dach C Saskatoon WHL
15-N 20 11 Cole Caufield RW U.S. U18 NTDP
18-E 23 12 Pavel Dorofeyev LW Stalnye Lisy MHL
5-E 12 13 Victor Soderstrom RHD Brynas SHL
13-N 13 14 Raphael Lavoie RW Halifax QMJHL
16-N 9 15 Alex Newhook C Victoria BCHL
7-E 102 16 Ville Heinola LHD Lukko SM-Liiga
10-E 14 17 Nils Hoglander RW Rogle SHL
6-E 17 18 Moritz Seider RHD Adler Mannheim DEL
10-N 15 19 Ryan Suzuki C Barrie OHL
12-N 19 20 Cam York LHD U.S. U18 NTDP
1-NG 62 21 Spencer Knight G U.S. U18 NTDP
28-N 22 22 Connor McMichael C London OHL
4-E 45 23 Ilya E. Nikolayev C Loko Yaroslavl MHL
20-N 35 24 Jakob Pelletier LW Moncton QMJHL
11-N 26 25 Arthur Kaliyev LW Hamilton OHL
3-E 28 26 Philip Broberg LHD AIK Allsvenskan
44-E 21 27 Yegor Spiridonov C Stalnye Lisy MHL
53-N 24 28 John Beecher C U.S. U18 NTDP
24-N 133 29 Phil Thomasino C Niagara OHL
19-E 16 30 Anttoni Honka RHD JyP SM-Liiga
14-E 29 31 Michal Teply LW Liberec Extraliga
49-N 32 32 Robert Mastrosimone LW Chicago USHL
18-N 18 33 Matthew Robertson LHD Edmonton WHL
38-N 36 34 Oleg Zaitsev C Red Deer WHL
30-E 78 35 Leevi Aaltonen RW Kalpa SM-Liiga
9-N 60 36 Thomas Harley LHD Mississauga OHL
29-N 43 37 Bobby Brink RW Sioux City USHL
28-E 48 38 Patrik Puistola C/W Leki Mestis
8-E 33 39 Tobias Bjornfot LHD Djugardens J20 Superelit
27-N 40 40 Samuel Poulin LW Sherbrooke QMJHL
36-N 39 41 Ryan Johnson LHD Sioux Falls USHL
14-N 42 42 Lassi Thomson RHD Kelowna WHL
37-N 34 43 John Farinacci C Dexter HS-MA
44-N 189 44 Adam Beckman C Spokane WHL
33-N 30 45 Drew Helleson RHD U.S. U18 NTDP
84-E 25 46 Vojtech Strondala C/W Trebic Chance Liga
30-N 77 47 Nicholas Robertson C/RW Peterborough OHL
19-N 71 48 Egor Afanasyev LW Muskegon USHL
60-N 37 49 Valentin Nussbaumer C Shawinigan QMJHL
25-N 38 50 Alex Vlasic LHD U.S. U18 NTDP


Colorado Avalanche

GM: Joe Sakic (9/19/14)
Scouting Director: Alan Hepple

2019 Draft Position: 1st (via Ottawa in the Duchene trade)
–Currently own 16th pick as well

Draft odds
1st Overall: 18.5%
Top-3 Pick: 49.4%
Lowest: 4th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Russian Friendly – The Av’s have drafted five Russian league players since 2015. No shock since Russian scout Alexei Gusarov was a longtime teammate of Sakic’s
*Conor Timmins (2nd/2017) has had injury issues that should be a real concern. He suffered multiple concussions and did not play all season, which could impact how Colorado drafts if they fall out of the top two.
*Cale Makar and Nicolas Meloche (AHL) for now are their top two defense prospects.
*Shane Bowers has signed a pro-contract and should get a long look next season; one that possibly knocks Tyson Jost down the depth chart.
*Colorado has taken goalies in five of the last six drafts, albeit with marginal results. Adam Werner, however, has done well in Sweden and is the best of the group, with Justus Annunen (2nd/2018) close behind.
*Av’s have taken only 2 WHL players (defensman Josh Anderson and forward Nick Henry) and three OHL players since Sakic came on board.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Martin Kaut (CZE) – went forward or goalie with 7 of 8 picks (Zhuravlyov only def)
2017: Cale Makar (AJHL), Smirnov hype train slowed down
2016: Tyson Jost (BCHL) – Cam Morrison (Notre Dame) is decent
2015: Mikko Rantanen (SM-Liiga) – Close the book on AJ Greer – turns 23 in December
2014: Conner Bleackley (WHL) — — was not signed

Top Prospects

1. Cale Makar-D (AJHL)
2. Martin Kaut-RW (Extraliga)
3. Nikolai Kovalenko-RW (MHL)
4. Adam Werner-G (Allsvenskan)
5. Nic Meloche-D (QMJHL)

Draft Needs
1. Center – Although Tyson Jost was a first rounder in 2016, they’ve only drafted four or five centers in last four drafts. They’ve acquired both Bowers and Vladislav Kamenev in last year’s Matt Duchene deal, but Kamenev was out half the season with a shoulder injury.

2. Two-way defenseman — If they win the lottery or get the second pick, it’s going to be either Hughes or Kakko. If they fall to three or four, the Av’s could add a dominant defender like Bowen Byram as a winning contingency for the question surrounding Timmins.

3. Finisher for their 2C — Colorado has one of the best lines in hockey, but drafting Hughes will also require the presence of a winger who can bury the disc. Martin Kaut is more of a dual-threat winger who likes to pass the puck, so it wouldn’t be a shock if Sakic uses his second first rounder on a scorer who could flank Hughes.
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Los Angeles Kings

GM: Rob Blake (4/11/17)
Scouting Director: Mark Yanetti

2019 Draft Position: 2nd
–Own Toronto’s 1st rounder via the Jake Muzzin trade (24th overall)

Draft odds
1st Overall: 13.5%
Top-3 Pick: 49.4%
Lowest: 5th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Los Angeles has leaned heavily on Canadian major junior, drafting 20 players from the CHL between 2014-2018
*The Kings have taken an NCAA overager in four of the last six drafts.
*They’ve done well in the goalie prospect department, nabbing three quality netminders in last two drafts – David Hrenak (SCSU), Jacob Ingham (OHL) and Matt Villalta (OHL)
*The organization is rich in puck movers – Kale Clague, Mikey Anderson, Markus Phillips, and NCAA stud Cole Hults from Penn State. But the Kings didn’t draft one defender last year.
*They could uses wingers, especially if Akil Thomas (2nd/2018) is groomed as a center. Swede Johan Sodergran (6th/2018) had a promising season, but Russian Bulat Shafigulin (3rd/2018) has a down year as a depth player in the KHL.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Rasmus Kupari-C (SM-Liiga)
2017: Gabe Vilardi-C (OHL)
2016: NONE
2015: NONE
2014: Adrian Kempe (SHL)

Top Prospects

1. Rasmus Kupari, Center
2. Kale Clague, Defenseman
3. Akil Thomas, Center/Wing
4. Gabe Vilardi, Center
5. Cole Hults, Defenseman

Draft Needs
1. Finisher/Sniper — Kakko is absolutely the perfect fit for what the rebuilding Kings have going on. A 1-2 punch down the middle of Hughes-Kupari would be hard to pass up, but Kakko still should be their guy. But consider the lack of a defenseman of Bowen Byram’s ilk, so I can see Blake liking his combination of elite skill and physicality.

2. Two-way center — The best pick for the Kings if both Hughes and Kakko are gone would be Turcotte or Cozens, especially if the organization gets Gabe Vilardi vibes with Kirby Dach’s average footspeed.

New Jersey Devils

GM: Ray Shero (5/4/15)
Scouting Director: Paul Castron

2019 Draft Position: 3rd

Draft odds
1st Overall: 11.5%
Top-3 Pick: 33.9%
Lowest: 6th overall

Notes and Trends

*Devils have shown no concern with the “Russian Factor”, taking at least one prospect from a Russian league in each of last three drafts
*Ray Shero and staff do a great job mining for European gems outside the first round – Aarne Talvitie (FIN), Jesper Bratt (SWE), and Jesper Boqvist (SWE) are three shining examples of New Jersey’s scouting abilities.
*New Jersey has taken Swiss goalies in each of the last two drafts and at least one goalie every draft since Shero came aboard in 2015.
*At least three CHL’ers have been snagged by New Jersey in each of Shero’s four drafts, including nine from the OHL.
*It will probably increase after this year, but the Devils has dipped into the NTDP’s talent-rich roster only once since 2013 (Joey Anderson in 2016).
*The organization currently owns the rights to three excellent puck rushers in Reilly Walsh, Ty Smith and Jeremy Davies.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Ty Smith-LHD (WHL)
2017: Nico Hischier-C (QMJHL)
2016: Mike McLeod-C (OHL)
2015: Pavel Zacha-C (OHL)
2014: John Quenneville (WHL)

Top Prospects

1. Ty Smith, Defenseman
2. Joey Anderson, Right Wing
3. Jesper Boqvist, Left Wing
4. Mike McLeod, Center
5. Jeremy Davies, Defenseman
6. Aarne Talvitie, Center
7. Fabian Zetterlund-RW

Draft Needs
1. Two-way defender: New Jersey’s glory years were driven by smothering, in-your-face defenders who also knew how to move the puck. A 1-2 punch consisting of Ty Smith and Bowen Byram would give the franchise a dimension it hasn’t had since the days of Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer.
Available targets: Bowen Byram

2. Playmaking center: Passing on Mathew Barzal in favor of Pavel Zacha may still haunt Ray Shero, which may be why he drafted a pass-first pivot in Mike McLeod a year later. Neither Zacha nor McLeod, however, have the kind of franchise-changing upside like what you see in Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte or Kirby Dach.

Detroit Red Wings

GM: Ken Holland 7/18/97
Scouting Director: Tyler Wright

2019 Draft Position: 4th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 9.5%
Top-3 Pick: 28.8%
Lowest: 7th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Had 21 picks the last two drafts – nine this year and nine more the next. Barring future trades, that’s 39 draft picks in a four-year period.
*Not surprising that the Red Wings have drafted 11 Swedes since 2014, mostly from J20 Superelit.
*Detroit has taken a goalie in each of the last five drafts.
*Don’t look for a “Russian Five” redux anytime soon. The Wings have not drafted a Russian player in any of their last three drafts.
*Since 2009, Detroit has taken a CHL/USHL Import in seven of 10 drafts.
*The Red Wings used a first pick on a QMJHL’er in five of last eight drafts.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Filip Zadina-LW (CZE), Joe Veleno-C (QMJHL)
2017: Mike Rasmussen-C (WHL)
2016: Dennis Cholowski-D (BCHL)
2015: Evgeny Svechnikov-RW (QMJHL)
2014: Dylan Larkin-C (NTDP)

Top Prospects

1. Filip Zadina, Left Wing
2. Joe Veleno, Center
3. Jonatan Berggren, Left Wing
4. Gustav Lindstrom, Defenseman
5. Jared McIsaac, Defenseman

Draft Needs
1. Center – A dominant season by Joe Veleno in the QMJHL shouldn’t stop the Red Wings from gunning for the franchise center that’s eluded them since Henrik Zetterberg. Trevor Zegras would be an excellent alternative if they miss out on an uber-playmaker like Jack Hughes.
Available targets: Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte

2. PPQB/Offensive defenseman — The Red Wings seem to be spending more time scouting the NTDP than in previous years. They don’t necessarily need wingers, so that belief could bump Podkolzin and Boldy down their draft board behind all those elite centers. If Bowen Byram is their BPA at fourth overall, he could be viewed as the centerpiece of their excellent group of young defenders.
Available targets: Bowen Byram

Buffalo Sabres

GM: Jason Botterill 5/11/17
Scouting Director: Ryan Jankowski

2019 Draft Position: 5th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 8.5%
Top-3 Pick: 26.1%
Lowest: 8th overall
–Own San Jose’s 1st rounder via Evander Kane trade (25th overall)

Notes and Trends:

*Of Botterill’s 12 picks since becoming GM, eight were defense or goalie.
*Pro-Nordic – Seven of 12 picks since 2017 from Finland and Sweden
*Last QMJHL pick was in 2014 – Vaclav Karabacek
*Traded Brendan Gughle to Anaheim for Brandon Montour. Still have Will Borgen, Casey Fitzgerald, Jacob Bryson, Oskari Laaksonen and Mattias Samuelsson
*Only one goalie taken in last four drafts – Ukko Pekka Lukkonen

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Rasmus Dahlin-D (SHL)
2017: Casey Mittelstadt-C/W (USHL)
2016: Alex Nylander-RW (OHL)
2015: Jack Eichel-C (HE)
2014: Sam Reinhart-C (WHL)

Top Prospects

1. Alex Nylander, Right Wing
2. Victor Olofsson, Left Wing
3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Goalie
4. Rasmus Asplund, Center
5. Mattias Samuelsson, Defenseman

Draft Needs
1. Center – Mittelstadt may be better on wing. A 200-foot playmaker would take a lot of pressure off Eichel.
Available targets: Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach

2. Goalie – UPL/6K is a blue chip but depth in organization is missing. They have a second pick in the first round and could use that to help address the issue in goal.
Available targets: Spencer Knight, Mads Sogaard, Hunter Jones

3. Finishers – With Jeff Skinner’s future up in the air, and Victor Olofsson and Alex Nylander still too green to fully assess as future goal scorers, the Sabres remain a pass-happy bunch that could always use a flanker to pair with Eichel.

New York Rangers

GM: Jeff Gorton (7/1/15)
Scouting Director: Gordie Clark

2019 Draft Position: 6th
–Own Winnipeg’s 1st rounder via Kevin Hayes trade (22nd overall)
–Could own Tampa’s 1st rounder in the Lightning win the Stanley Cup (31st overall)

Draft odds
1st Overall: 7.5 %
Top-3 Pick: 23.3%
Lowest: 9th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Have not drafted a Canadian-born CHL’er in any of the last two drafts
*Only one QMJHL’er – Gabriel Fontaine (6th/2017) – since 2015
*They’ve selected eight Swedes and 16 Europeans since 2015
*The Rangers have drafted six goalies over last six drafts – five are still with the organization.
*10 American-born prospects since 2014
*Only one CHL prospect has been a Rangers selection in the first round since 2009 (Dylan McIlrath in 2010).
*It’s been 15 years since they had the chance at this high of a pick. The last time they picked higher than seventh, they took goalie Al Montoya in 2004.
*The Rangers are owners of 10 draft picks in 2020, so moving up by packaging futures is a real possibility.
*Deep all over defense depth chart. They have an abundance of puck movers – Nils Lundkvist, K’Andre Miller, Tarmo Reunanen, Libor Hajek, Neal Pionk, Tony DeAngelo, Sean Day and Joey Keane. They also have mobile shutdown types in Yegor Rykov, Ryan Lindgren, and Brandon Crawley.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Vitaly Kravtsov-LW (KHL), K’Andre Miller-D (NTDP), Nils Lundkvist-D (SHL)
2017: Lias Andersson-C (SHL), Filip Chytil-C (Extraliga)
2016: NONE
2015: NONE
2014: NONE

Top Prospects

1. Vitaly Kravtsov, Left Wing/Right Wing
2. Igor Shestyorkin, Goalie
3. Libor Hajek, Defenseman
3. K’Andre Miller, Defenseman
4. Tarmo Reunanen, Defenseman

Draft Needs
1. Center: The two best playmaking centers the Rangers have drafted in the last 30 years — Doug Weight in 1990 and Marc Savard in 1995 — became stars for other organization. This is their best chance to select an elite set-up man who can carry their top line for the next decade and beyond.
Available targets: Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach, Peyton Krebs

2. Scoring Winger: 2018 first-round pick Vitaly Kravtsov is developing into an elite finisher, but he’ll need help if the Rangers want to become a contender again.
Available targets: RW Vasily Podkolzin, LW Matt Boldy, RW Cole Caufield, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Edmonton Oilers

General Manager: Keith Gretzky — TBD
Scouting Director: Bob Green

2019 Draft Position: 7th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 6.5 %
Top-3 Pick: 20.4%
Lowest: 10th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Evan Bouchard in 2018 was first defender they took in first round in five years.
*Oilers have drafted at least one goalie in five straight drafts but none of them have any NHL games played.
*Edmonton has taken players from the U.S. NTDP in three of last four years.
*Each of their last six first-round picks dating back to 2013 played for the Oilers this past season – Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Evan Bouchard.
* Every one of their first draft selections between 2004 and 2011 are active NHLers.
*Only QMJHL’er selected by the Oilers in any of the last five drafts was goalie Kevin Bouchard, who was taken in the seventh round in 2014.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Evan Bouchard-D (OHL)
2017: Kailer Yamamoto-RW (WHL)
2016: Jesse Puljujarvi- LW (SM-Liiga)
2015: Connor McDavid-C (OHL)
2014: Leon Draisaitl-W/C (WHL)

Top Prospects

1. Evan Bouchard, Defenseman
2. Kailer Yamamoto, Right Wing
3. Tyler Benson, Left Wing
4. Ethan Bear, Defenseman
5. Olivier Rodrigue, Goalie
6. Kirill Maksimov, Right Wing

Draft Needs

1. Center: Teams with one elite center are all over this lottery map. Adding one more? That could make you a Cup contender. McDavid is dying for second-line support, and this is the perfect draft to find it.
Available targets: Peyton Krebs, Kirby Dach

2. Finisher: Couple Jesse Puljujarvi’s struggles with the fact that both Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson are cerebral wingers who like to control the puck and set up plays, and the Oilers continue to deal with the issue of finding a permanent sniper for their second line. Kirill Maksimov could get a chance to do that, but why not give him some competition?
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Anaheim Ducks

GM: Bob Murray 11/12/08
Scouting Director: Martin Madden

2019 Draft Position: 8th
–Own St. Louis 1st rounder via Buffalo in Brandon Montour trade (20th overall)

Draft odds
1st Overall: 6%
Top-3 Pick: 19%
Lowest: 11th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Anaheim has taken goalies in three of the last five drafts – two last year (Roman Durny and Lukas Dostal), and Olle Eriksson-Ek in 2017.
*Only two defensemen drafted in last three drafts – Josh Mahura, who is an excellent prospect,  and Hunter Drew, a 2018 seventh rounder
*Their system has several playmakers or two-way types – Sam Steel, Antoine Morand, Blake McLaughlin, Isac Lundestrom, Maxime Comtois, Troy Terry, and Bo Groulx
*Anaheim seems to favor prospects Sweden and CHL, although they’ve only used three picks on OHL’ers since 2012 – Nick Ritchie, Max Jones and Jack Kopacka)

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Isac Lundestrom-C (SHL)
2017: NONE (Comtois-LW, QMJHL 2nd)
2016: Max Jones-LW (OHL), Sam Steel-C (WHL)
2015: Jacob Larsson-D (SHL)
2014: Nick Ritchie-LW (OHL)

Top Prospects

1. Troy Terry, Right Wing
2. Maxime Comtois, Left Wing
3. Sam Steel, Center
4. Josh Mahura, Defenseman
5. Isac Lundestrom, Center

Draft Needs
1. Finishers — The Ducks always draft well and have an excellent pool, but they could uses some flash and finesse on the wings. Jones and Comtois play a physical style, and Podkolzin offers the Ducks the same kind of package.
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Vancouver Canucks

General Manager: Jim Benning (5/23/14)
Scouting Director: Judd Brackett

2019 Draft Position: 9th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 5 %
Top-3 Pick: 16%
Lowest: 12th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Canucks have drafted at least one WHL prospect in each of the last six drafts.
*Nine picks have come from the OHL since Jim Benning took over as GM right before the 2014 draft.
*Vancouver has taken at least one player from an American circuit — NCAA, USHL, NTDP or HS – in each of Benning’s five drafts.
*Four of Vancouver’s six picks in the 2016 draft are no longer with the organization. Only defenseman Olli Juolevi (fifth overall) and NCAA winger Will Lockwood (64th overall) remain.
*Three of the last four forwards the Canucks drafted in the first round – Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat — have scored at least 25 goals in the NHL. Only one of the previous 21 forwards taken between 2007 and 2012 – Cody Hodgson — have hit the 20-goal mark.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Quinn Hughes-D (NCAA)
2017: Elias Pettersson-C/W (SHL)
2016: Olli Juolevi-D (OHL)
2015: Brock Boeser-RW (USHL)
2014: Jake Virtanen-RW (WHL)

Top Prospects

1. Quinn Hughes, Defenseman
2. Thatcher Demko, Goalie
3. Jett Woo, Defenseman
4. Jack Rathbone, Defenseman
5. Tyler Madden, Center

Draft Needs

1. Center – Big club are set down the middle for now, but after Tyler Madden they have zilch in the pipeline.
Available targets: Peyton Krebs, Alex Newhook.

2. Goal-scoring winger — Jonathan Dahlen’s trade, coupled with nondescript AHL seasons from Jonah Gadjovich and Kole Lind, should create a high demand for a finisher.
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Philadelphia Flyers

General Manager: Chuck Fletcher (12/3/18)
Scouting Director: Brett Flahr

2019 Draft Position: 10th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 3.5 %
Top-3 Pick: 11.4%
Lowest: 13th overall

Notes and Trends (2014-2018):

*League-high 36 picks combined over last four drafts, with at least eight picks in each one.
*Flyers drafted nine players out of Sweden, four from Russia since 2014. None from Finland
*Of their 42 picks since 2014, 17 were from the CHL – seven from both the OHL and WHL, and four from the QMJHL. Of those 17 picks, 13 were forwards, three defensemen and one goalie.
*In terms of NHL games played among Flyers draftees since 2014, four of the top six are from the WHL – Ivan Provorov, Nolan Patrick, Travis Sanheim and Carter Hart.
*Philadelphia has not drafted a defenseman out of the OHL since it took Colin Suellentrop in the fourth round in 2011.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Joel Farabee-LW (NTDP); Jay O’Brien-C (HS-MA)
2017: Nolan Patrick-C (WHL); Morgan Frost-C (OHL)
2016: German Rubtsov-C (MHL)
2015: Ivan Provorov-D (WHL); Travis Konecny-C (OHL)
2014: Travis Sanheim-D (WHL)

Top Prospects

1. Morgan Frost, Center
2. Joel Farabee, Left Wing
3. Samuel Ersson, Goalie
4. Philippe Myers, Defenseman
5. Isaac Ratcliffe, Left Wing

Draft Needs

1. Scoring winger – Outside of Ratcliffe, the system lacks a pure sniper. The last Flyers winger that was an original draftee who scored 30 or more in a season was Simon Gagne in 2009.
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

2. Power-play quarterback – Philadelphia’s power play has gotten worse every year since 2015, and they were the lowest-ranked Flyers unit since the lost season of 2006-07.
Available targets: Ville Heinola, Cam York, Philip Broberg.

Minnesota Wild

General Manager: Paul Fenton (5/21/18)
Scouting Director: Guy Lapointe

2019 Draft Position: 11th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 3%
Top-3 Pick: 9.8%
Lowest: 14th overall

Notes and Trends (2014-2018):

*During former GM Chuck Fletcher’s tenure in Minnesota for the drafts between 2009-2017, the Wild took nearly as many players from U.S leagues (20/59) as it did from the CHL (21/59). Fletcher drafted 10 players from Minnesota high schools in that same period, tying the WHL for the most players selected from one circuit.
*Minnesota had six second-round picks from 2010-13, but only one since.
*Five of Minnesota’s six first-round picks between 2009 and 2014 are still active in the NHL and played more than 150 games.
*The Wild has drafted 13 goalies since entering the league in 2000. Of those 13, five made it to the NHL and none have played in at least 200 games.
*Including 2016, Minnesota has drafted 12 forwards and four defensemen with their last 16 draft picks. They picked seven goalies in seven drafts from 2009 to 2015 but none since.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Filip Johansson-D (SHL)
2017: NONE
2016: Luke Kunin-C (Big-10)
2015: Joel Eriksson Ek-C (SHL)
2014: Alex Tuch-RW (NTDP)

Top Prospects

1. Kirill Kaprizov, Left Wing
2. Mason Shaw, Center
3. Brennan Menell, Defenseman
4. Dmitry Sokolov, Left Wing
5. Alexander Khovanov, Center

Draft Needs

1. Goalie – The Wild has ignored netminders in each of the last three drafts, and AHL’er Kaapo Kahkonen (4th/2014) is the best they have in an incredibly thin pipeline
Available targets: Spencer Knight, Mads Sogaard.

2. Versatile winger — They have a pure sniper in Sokolov and Kaprizoff is a stud, but Marian Gaborik (2000) and Jason Zucker (2010) remain the only homegrown wingers in franchise history to reach the 30-goal mark.
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Chicago Blackhawks

General Manager: Stan Bowman (7/14/09)
Scouting Director: Mark Kelley

2019 Draft Position: 12th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 2.5%
Top-3 Pick: 8.2%
Lowest: 15th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Last three first-round picks were offensive defensemen.
*Seven of Stan Bowman’s picks since 2009 have reached the 40-point mark in the NHL, and the list grows to eight if you include Vinny Hinostroza’s 39-point year for Arizona. Of those eight, four were first-round picks, and none were drafted higher than 18th overall. The most prolific single-season goal scorers among Bowman’s picks – Brandon Saad and Alex DeBrincat – were drafted in Round 2.
*The Blackhawks under Bowman sure love their kids to maintain NCAA eligibility. Of his 87 picks, 39 have come from either the USHL, Canadian Jr. A, NCAA or U.S. high schools, and only 22 from the CHL.
*Chicago since 2009 has taken as many players from the QMJHL as they have from the OHL – eight apiece. Only six have come from the WHL.
*Fourteen of the 23 players selected from Europe under Bowman came from Swedish leagues.
*Six of the eight goalies taken by the Blackhawks since 2009 were in either Rounds 6 or 7.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Adam Boqvist-D (SHL), Nicolas Beaudin-D (QMJHL)
2017: Henri Jokiharju-D (WHL)
2016: NONE
2015: NONE
2014: Nick Schmaltz (USHL)

Top Prospects

1. Adam Boqvist, Defenseman
2. Ian Mitchell, Defenseman
3. Nicolas Beaudin, Defenseman
4. Evan Barratt, Center
5. Artur Kayumov, Left Wing

Draft Needs

1. Center – There simply aren’t many playmakers from center within the pool. The Hawks appear to have struck gold with Dylan Strome but they’ll need to add a more options for later.
Available targets: Alex Newhook, Ryan Suzuki, Connor McMichael, Ilya Nikolayev.

2. Goalie — In terms of depth and quality, this is the draft for Chicago to address an organization-wide Achille’s heel.
Available targets: Spencer Knight, Mads Sogaard, Hunter Jones.

Florida Panthers

General Manager: Dale Tallon (5/17/10)
Scouting Director: Jason Bukala

2019 Draft Position: 13th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 2%
Top-3 Pick: 6.6%
Lowest: 15th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Have drafted wingers with three of last four first-round picks (Denisenko, Tippett, Crouse).
*Under Tallon, Florida has more than doubled its number of OHL draft picks (13) than those from the QMJHL (7) and WHL (5) combined. Except for 2012, they’ve selected at least one OHL prospect in every draft since 2010.
*Tallon has drafted only five goalies over his nine drafts, and he’s taken more from the NAHL (2) than he has from the CHL (1).
*Not including Aleksi Heponiemi (2nd/2017), who was drafted out of the WHL as an import, the Panthers have selected one Finnish player in five of the last six drafts and seven total under Tallon’s watch. Conversely, Florida has practically avoided Sweden altogether, drafting only two in the previous six years and none in the last two.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Grigory Denisenko-RW (MHL)
2017: Owen Tippett-RW (OHL)
2016: Henrik Borgstrom-C (Jr. A SM-Liiga)
2015: Lawson Crouse-LW (OHL)
2014: Aaron Ekblad-D (OHL)

Top Prospects

1. Grigory Denisenko, Right Wing
2. Aleksi Heponiemi, Center/Wing
3. Owen Tippett, Right Wing
4. Serron Noel, Right Wing
5. Riley Stillman, Defenseman

Draft Needs

1. Goalie — The Cats likely fall out of the range of the elite centers, and their ridiculius depth on wing makes gunning for a potential franchise backstop all the more understandable.
Available targets: Spencer Knight

2. Two-way defenseman – Florida could use a stopper on defense, but also one who is quick enough to skate the puck out of harm’s way.
Available targets: Victor Soderstrom, Moritz Seider, Matthew Robertson

Arizona Coyotes

General Manager: John Chayka (5/5/16)
Scouting Director: Lindsay Hofford

2019 Draft Position: 14th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 1.5%
Top-3 Pick: 5%
Lowest: 15th overall

Notes and Trends:

*Almost half of Chayka’s draft picks since taking over as GM in 2016 have been from the CHL (11/23)
*Eight of their last nine first rounders have been from the CHL.
*The Coyotes have drafted only three non-NTDP players from the USHL since 2009, and all were drafted out of the Youngstown Phantoms program in either 2017 or 2018.
*The NTDP has provided Arizona with at least one draft pick in five of the last six drafts.
*Arizona has not drafted a Finnish prospect since 2012 (Niklas Tikkinen). The last prospect from a Russian league drafted by the organization was 2008 first-rounder Viktor Tikhonov.
*The Coyotes have drafted at least two NHL regulars in each of the three drafts between 2014 and 2016.
*Former first rounders Max Domi (2013), Dylan Strome (2015) and Clayton Keller (2016) have all reached the 20-goal, 50-point marks. No Coyotes draftee taken between 2009 and 2012 reached that benchmark. Only Keller still remains in the organization.
*The last goalie drafted higher than the third round was 2010 first-rounder Mark Visentin.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Barrett Hayton-C (OHL)
2017: Pierre-Olivier Joseph-D (QMJHL)
2016: Clayton Keller-C (NTDP), Jakob Chychrun-D (OHL)
2015: Dylan Strome-C (OHL), Nick Merkely-LW (WHL)
2014: Brendan Perlini-LW (OHL)

Top Prospects

1. Barrett Hayton, Center
2. Kyle Capobianco, Defense
3. Adin Hill, Goalie
4. Nate Schnarr, Center
5. Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Defenseman

Draft Needs

1. Scoring Winger – The Yotes have quality playmakers throughout the organization, even after trading Strome. This franchise (and the fanbase) is just dying for a legitimate finisher with 30 to 40-goal potential.
Available targets: RW Cole Caufield, RW Raphael Lavoie, LW Arthur Kaliyev, LW Pavel Dorofeyev

Montreal Canadiens

General Manager: Marc Bergevin (5/2/12)
Scouting Director: Trevor Timmins

2019 Draft Position: 15th

Draft odds
1st Overall: 1%
Top-3 Pick: 3.3%
Lowest: 15th overall

Notes and Trends:

*29 of Bergevin’s 50 picks since 2012 were from the CHL
*2013 first-rounder Michael McCarron is the only NTDP player drafted by the Bergevin regime.
*Montreal has drafted only six players out of Finland since 2004, and four – Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Joni Ikonen, Artturi Lehkonen and Jesse Ylonen – were made with Bergevin and Timmins at the helm.
*The Canadiens have drafted only five goalies in the 13 drafts since taking Carey Price fifth overall in 2005.
*Three of this year’s top-50 in defense scoring – Ryan McDonagh, P.K. Subban and Mikhail Sergachev – were former Montreal draft picks who accomplished the feat on another team.

Last five 1st Round Picks (2014-2018):

2018: Jesperi Kotkaniemi-C (SM-Liiga)
2017: Ryan Poehling-C (NCHC)
2016: Mikhail Sergachev-D (OHL)
2015: Noah Juulsen-D (WHL)
2014: Nikita Scherbak-LW (WHL)

Top Prospects

1. Ryan Poehling, Center
2. Nick Suzuki, Center
3. Josh Brook, Defenseman
4. Jesse Ylonen, Right Wing
5. Cayden Primeau, Goalie

Draft Needs

1. Goal-scoring winger: All these quality centers need multiple finishers if they want to compete with the Tampas and Torontos of the worlds.
Available targets: Arthur Kaliyev, Pavel Dorofeyev, Raphael Lavoie, Jakob Pelletier

2. Power-play quarterback: As the excitement percolates in Montreal, buoyed by strong showings year after year at the draft, the Habs missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time in nearly two decades. Owning the 30th-best power play and not having a Subban type are two reasons why.
Available targets: Thomas Harley, Ville Heinola, Cam York, Philip Broberg